Logistic递减开发模型

永颉同心

摘　要：本文提出了Logistic递减开发模型，提出了开‘发速度，采出程度等开发指标的数学关系式。分析了参数对Logistic递减开发模型的影响。提出了开发初期Logistic递减开发模型的确定方法，便于开发初期决策。制作了Logistic递减开发模型的logVD-log Rp图版，log VD-logat图版，logRp-logat图版。提出了开发中晚期Logistic递减开发模型的判断方法，三点抛物线法和三种图版匹配的拟合方法，为开发中晚期预测奠定了基础。Logis-tic递减开发模型是一种先慢后快的递减模型。
关键词：Logistic递减；开发模型；早期决策；判断方法；三点抛物线法；图版匹配法；增长曲线；生长曲线
分类号：TE319　文献标识码：A
文章编号：1001－6872(2000)01－0070－73

LOGISTIC DECLINE DEVELOPMENT MODEL

FENG Weng-uang
(State Key Laboratory of Oil/Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Petroleum Department, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059)

Abstract：A mathematical expression for such development indexes as recovery rates and recov-ery percent of reserves is established on the basis of the logistic decline development model and he logistic decline development model is proposed. The effect of parameter on the logistic decline development model is analyzed. For the convenience of policy decision in the initial stage of devel-opment, the method of determining the logistic decline development model is proposed. Accord-ingly, the log logVD-logRp type curves, logVD～log (at) type curves and logRp～log (at) type urves are created. The proposition of assessment method and the matching methods for three point parabolic method and the three type curves for the logistic decline development model in the mid-late stage development lies a foundation for the mid-late stage prediction.
Keywords：Logistic decline; development model; initial stage policy decision; determining method ;three point parabolic method ;type curves matching method ;growth curve

作者简介：冯文光 男 52岁 教授(博士导师) 油藏工程专业 研究方向：油气田开发、数值模拟，试井分析及煤层气藏
作者单位：冯文光（“油气藏地质及开发工程”国家重点实验室，成都理工学院石油系 610059）　
参考文献：

［1］陈元千．Logistic模型的推导及自回归方法[J].新疆石油地质，1996，17(2)．
［2］冯文光，胡常忠．杨凤波．Arps递减开发模型[J]．矿物岩石，1999(3)．
［3］冯文光，胡常忠，杨凤波．Кодътов递减开发模型[J]．矿物岩石，1999(3)．
［4］冯文光．FWG1幂指数递减开发模型[J]．矿物岩石，1999(4)．

zdr2005

小手一抖，一分在手！{:soso_e113:}

mope

谢谢分享

agx5290

谢谢分享

syq197510

谢谢分享，学习一下。

syq197510

好文章啊。

dashuigangxx

感谢分享